Eurocontrol has revised its 2026 European air traffic forecasts downward, projecting a net loss of 110,000 flight movements compared to earlier projections. The agency cites ongoing disruption from the conflict in Iran as the primary reason for this adjustment.
Adjusted Growth Expectations
Initial forecasts released in the spring predicted a 2.7% increase in flight movements for 2026. However, updated projections now indicate growth of only 1.7%, which translates to 110,000 fewer flights across Europe.
The conflict has significantly impacted airline operations, particularly by driving up fuel costs. Kerosene now accounts for 31% of airline operating costs, up from 25% in 2025, according to Eurocontrol’s analysis.
Despite the uncertainty surrounding the conflict’s duration, Eurocontrol anticipates gradual stabilization. The agency expects reduced energy price pressure by the end of Q1 2027 and no further conflict-related impacts beyond that year.
Looking ahead, Eurocontrol forecasts traffic growth of 3.2% in 2027, 2.6% in 2028, and 2.2% in 2030, slowing to 1.8% by 2032. By this time, an estimated 12.82 million flights are planned annually.
Carrier Performance in Challenging Times
Ryanair remains Europe’s busiest carrier, despite reducing operations in Belgium due to a ticket tax increase. This decision led to the removal of six aircraft and 1.1 million seats from its Belgian network.
During the first nine months of 2026, Ryanair operated an average of 3,434 daily flights, a 5% increase. EasyJet followed with 1,666 daily flights (+2%), Turkish Airlines Group with 1,618 (+4%), and Air France-KLM with 1,084 (+1%).
Wizz Air demonstrated the strongest growth among major carriers, increasing its flights by 20% to rank fifth. In contrast, KLM experienced a 1% decline, operating 882 daily flights.
Low-cost carriers continue to dominate the European market, averaging 11,511 daily flights in the first nine months of 2026—a 4% increase over the previous year. Traditional airlines trailed with 10,883 daily flights, up 2%.
Regional Trends and Capacity Challenges
Regional airlines are facing difficulties, with daily flight counts dropping 5% to 3,574. Meanwhile, France’s aviation sector is outperforming the broader European trend.
French flight movements are expected to grow 3.5% in 2026, followed by 2.7% in 2027. The average annual growth between 2026 and 2032 is projected at 2.3%, slightly above Europe’s overall 2.1% forecast.
Aircraft occupancy rates reached 84.5% during the first eight months of 2026, a 0.4 percentage point increase from the same period last year.
By 2032, airport capacity constraints could prevent approximately 165,000 flights from being scheduled, Eurocontrol warns. This highlights infrastructure limitations as a significant long-term challenge for the industry.